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2nd November 2020

Monday, November 02, 2020
Melbourne Cup Special

We, at PrimaryMarkets, believe in the power of statistics when making investment decisions. Applying this logic, we set out below relevant Melbourne Cup Statistics for the 159th running of the race to help guide any and all punters amongst our 110,000+ investor network. Good luck!


Here's just a small taste: since the inaugural Melbourne Cup in 1866, the favourite has won 34 times (at a strike rate of 21.5%).

"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people"
W.C.Fields
The Money
Australian's total race-betting expenditure in 2019 was roughly A$1.27Billion. Total amount gambled on the race last year was A$300M+. The average spending on Melbourne Cup day for all Australians in 2019 was A$179 - A$88 0n betting and A$91 on entertainment, fashion and dinning. Sometimes punters win life-changing sums though: back in 1993 a Melbourne Cup Trifecta paid out a fabulous A$61,187.90 for a A$1.00 bet.

Melbourne Cup Horse Age Statistics
Three year olds: 23 Wins
Four year olds:46 Wins
Five year olds:44 Wins
Six year olds: 33 Wins
Seven year olds: 11 Wins
Eight year olds: 2 Wins

Five-year-olds and four-year-olds have the best record of any age group with 90 winners between them, for a 56.6% strike-rate.
The last three-year-old to win was Skipton (1941), and the last eight-year-old was Catalogue (1938), so based on trends it's a good bet to avoid horses at these ages. That being said, while 2018 winner Cross Counter was officially a four-year-old, by European ages, he was three when he won the Cup that year.

Melbourne Cup Barrier Statistics
Here are the key numbers related to Melbourne Cup winning barriers. Over the last 20 years five barriers - 14 (2 wins), 10 (2 wins), 11 (2 wins), 5 (2 wins) and 22 (2 wins) have accounted for 10 victories! The following table identifies the most successful Melbourne Cup barriers since they were introduced back in 1924:
Barrier 58 Wins
Barrier 10 7 Wins
Barriers 11, 14 & 17 7 Wins
Barriers 1, 4, 6, 8, 19 and 227 Wins

However, no horse has won from barrier 18 in the 84 years that they've been in use. Likewise, many feel barrier 13 is an unlucky draw, just don't tell that to Phar Lap (1930), Baghdad Note (1970), Ethereal (2001) or Dunaden who were all successful from that draw.

Best Cup Numbers / Saddlecoths
As shown below horses assigned numbers 4 and 12 lead with 11 wins.
Number 4: 11 Wins
Number 12: 11 Wins
Number 1: 10 Wins
Number 8: 8 Wins

The most successful horse number of the past 35 years is 6, with a total of 5 winners.

Best Melbourne Cup Weights
54.5 kgs:8 Wins
52.5 kgs: 7 Wins
53 kgs:7 Wins
52.5 kgs: 6 Wins

As seen above, the most popular weight carried to victory is 54.5kgs with 8 wins. During the past 35 years only Makybe Diva (2005) has carried 58kgs or greater to victory.

Best Horse Names, Colours and Genders
The colour Bay (reddish-brown coat with black mane, tail and lower legs) has produced 9 of the last 12 winners. That said, it is one of the more common coat types among horse breeds.

Since barrier draws became part of the Cup (also referred to as the modern-era) in 1924, only 10 horses with a first name that begins with a vowel have won. Of these, 5 began with the letter E (Efficient, Ethereal, Empire Rose, Even Stevens and Evening Deal) and with the letter A (Almandin, Amercain, Arwon and At Talaq. The only winner to start with the letter O was 1940 victor Old Rowley.

Overall, the most common are horses whose names begin with the letters P and S (12 winners each), followed by A and R (11 victories each). On the other hand, horses whose name starts with I, Q, U, X and Y have never won the Cup.

Only 16 females have won the Cup, with mares accounting for thirteen of these victories. Of the 13 wins by mares, 3 belong to Makybe Diva, who was also the last female to win the Cup (2005).

The Power of Five
5 has been the most successful barrier during the Melbourne Cup’s history, as 8 winners have come from that barrier. Meanwhile, five-year-olds have also almost tasted the most success over the years, landing 44 victories to 45 by four-year-olds. Older horses usually dominate this race, which is worth bearing in mind when analysing the form and picking your selections.
 
"I once lost $2.00 at the races. I spent over $3M trying to win it back!!"
Mickey Rooney

 

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